A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed here and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
