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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor follows a simple formula. It frequently acts as a form of apology. We regret we underestimated your team in our pre-campaign predictions.

Theoretically, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who engineered the most dramatic improvement receives the prize. However, it sparks an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior coaching or just the most shocking shock.

However this year's field is profoundly different. The list of candidates is remarkably deep. It has been the year of comebacks. The league has been unpredictable, with recent division winners declining and recent strugglers rising collectively. Under an typical year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the clear favorite. But in this turbulent and thrilling year, he's up against multiple other outstanding candidates.

Below is how the ideal ballot could be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by signal-callers. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Within an ideal system, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his rare talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's sustained performance. Under his guidance, Williams has become increasingly confident, less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an attack constructed solely in the coach's image: a physical ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action and a creative passing attack that creates wide-open targets all over the field. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been capable to create big plays from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive vision. Almost every gamble – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. That's uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the organization with the immense hype he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme genius but the type of leader that can inject new life into an organization.

In a ordinary season, he would be the runaway choice. But the current is not a normal season!

Where Johnson's case comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are famously fickle. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for sustained winning. But Johnson comes up just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has masterminded a swift resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has mastered the off-field stuff, which was not a given following his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the ideal coaching blend of youth and experience, he trusted newbies. From the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That type of setup is exciting on paper, but often collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet he has pulled everyone and all elements together.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year setback had the team wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing home-run plays and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the standings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have derailed the season in October. Rather, it made it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has regressed after that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

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